Saturday, August 9, 2014

Chp 3 Different Parsings, Different Images of Trends p30-42

"...a famous statistician once showed a precise correlation between arrests for public drunkenness and the number of Baptist preachers in nineteenth-century America" p32

Correlation does not equal causation, but it is so easy to think that when two events occur concomitantly, one must cause the other. This pattern seeking serves us well in nature; we eat a berry and feel sick later that evening. Conclusion: the berry caused sickness and therefore I should avoid that type of berries in the future. Here we see that error in the vaccine scare: vaccines are given and now the child shows signs of autism; its easy for mothers to draw the conclusion that vaccines cause autism. Even though we have the science to debunk that falsity, the scare continues.

"...spin doctors for politicians in power often use mean incomes to paint dishonestly bright pictures," p37

Stats can be made to say anything. I remember a drivers education book that persuaded individuals to wear seat belts by negating one reason not to wear seat belts with a statistic. One anti-seat belt phrase was, and I'm paraphrasing, "I'm only going a short distance. I don't need to wear my seat belt." The book's response "95% of car accidents happen within 25 miles from home." First I thought, my God, it must be super safe once you leave the 25 mile radius of your house. Then I realized that probably 95% of driving occurs within 25 miles of one's home. Proximity of your house has nothing to do with the occurrence of accidents, but the authors wanted to tell whatever story they wanted to with their stats.

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